基于系统动力学的电网企业综合计划关键指标预测  

Key Indicators of Comprehensive Program Forecasting for Power Grid Enterprises Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：张薛鸿[1] 董达鹏[1] 李晨[1] 刘清宇[1] 曾鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2011年第11期192-194,218,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：针对一般电网企业综合计划关键指标预测方法具有预测对象单一、过度依赖历史数据等问题,分析了售电量、线损率、购电量、售电均价、市场占有率及毛利润等6个综合计划关键指标的特点及计算方法,进而采用系统动力学方法构建了4个预测子系统,并结合某电网企业的实际数据,运用STELLA软件进行了算例仿真。结果表明,采用系统动力学方法能有效地反映电网企业未来的经营状况,合理、实用。Forecasting method of comprehensive program key indicators of general power enterprise has the problem, such as single prediction object and over-reliance on historical data. This paper analyzes the features and calculation method of power sales, line loss rate and purchased power, average power sales price, market share and gross profits, which are the six comprehensive program key indicators. Then, system dynamics method is used to build four prediction subsystem. Combined with the actual data of certain power company, it carries out simulation case through STELLA software. The results show that the system dynamics method is reasonable and effective, which can effectively reflect the company future operating conditions.

关 键 词：系统动力学 电网企业 综合计划关键指标 预测 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F426[经济管理—产业经济]