考虑有损伤测量条件下的设备剩余寿命的建模分析  

Modeling and Analysis of Equipment's Residual Life Considering the Condition of Damaging Measuring

作　　者：王小林[1] 郭波[1] 程志君[1] 齐建军[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2011年第5期59-63,共5页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家青年自然科学基金资助项目(60904002)

摘　　要：在有损测量的情况下,仅从退化数据本身出发所建的模型不能反映设备的真实退化过程。尤其在测量导致的设备性能退化量不可忽略时,不考虑测量耗损量将不能有效进行预测和评估。为解决这个问题,首先基于维纳过程建立有损测量的设备退化过程,进一步给出了相应模型的参数估计方法和基于贝叶斯理论的设备剩余寿命的实时更新方法,最后通过一个仿真示例表明了研究这个问题的意义和模型的有效性。In the case of equipments＇ performance degradation which partially results from measuring,the model which is only based on the degradation data itself cannot reflect the true degradation process,and it is unable to forecast and evaluate effectively,especially when the degradation quantity caused by measures cannot be ignored.In order to solve this problem,firstly,the equipment＇s degradation process model which contains the damaging quantity induced by measuring was established on the basis of Wiener process;then the method of parameters estimation and real-time updating method for equipment＇s residual life based on Bayesian theory were presented.Finally,a simulation example was presented to testify the significance of this research and the validity of models.

关 键 词：有损测量 维纳过程 剩余寿命 贝叶斯方法 实时更新 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]