石油公司效益的敏感性测度及分析研究  

SENSITIVITY MEASUREMENT ON PETROLEUM ENTERPRISES' BENEFITS

作　　者：许学娜[1] 刘金兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《资源与产业》2011年第5期106-112,共7页Resources & Industries

摘　　要：在对国内外相关文献进行综述的基础上,依据净利润、销售利润率、平均投资资本回报率等选定指标,对石油公司的效益情况进行分析研究;依据经济增加值与关键指标回归模型验证的相关性,证实市场价值与财务、运营关键指标的相关度,说明选择效益指标的合理性;基于敏感性分析技术,通过测算经济增加值、投资资本回报率对油价的敏感系数,表明油价增加导致对ROACE和EVA等效益指标的增加;分析近年公司效益对油价波动的敏感度趋势及变动原因,提出关注投资成本和结构性发展的政策建议,鼓励石油公司选择有吸引力的投资机会,增加在可持续、可替代能源项目的相应投入,辅助风险环境下的投资决策管理活动,实现更灵活地确定风险、收益条件下的最优投资效果。This paper, based on the summary of worldwide data and references, analyzes the benefits of petroleum enterprises according to their net profits, sales return rate, ROACE, etc. With the relativity between economy added values and key index regression model validation, this paper verifies the relativity between market values and finance and operation key index, meaning a rational benefit index. The sensitivity of oil price and economic added values and ROACE indicates that oil price rise will lead to a rise in ROACE and EVA. The sensitivity trend of enterprises＇benefits to oil fluctuation implies the investment shall be focused on costs and structure. The oil enterprises are encouraged to select the attractive opportunities to increase the investment in sustainable and alternative energy projects. Risk management can be more flexibly to attain the maximum benefits.

关 键 词：公司效益 油价波动 敏感分析 相关分析 改进对策 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F224