青海牧区雪灾月尺度精细化直接预测方法研究  

Study on Monthly-scale Fine Direct Prediction Method of Snow Disaster in Qinghai Pastoral Areas

作　　者：杨延华[1] 李林[1] 陈晓光[2] 时兴合[1] 申红艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海省气候中心,青海西宁810001 [2]青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第31期19468-19470,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家重大科技支撑项目(2007BAC29B04-08);青海省科技厅2008年项目"青海省重大气象灾害监测预警与应急响应";公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906019)

摘　　要：通过统计1961～2008年青海省牧区出现的雪灾情况,将出现雪灾的地区分为6个区,对应每个区域,将前期的降水、气温、降水日数以及同期的降水、气温作为因子,在保证信度≥0.1的基础上,确定相关系数较大的因子,运用线性回归方程建立预测模型,对青海省牧区分区域、分月份的积雪日数和积雪量进行预测,并依据"青海省雪灾标准(DB63/T372-2001)"进行相应级别的月尺度雪灾预警。通过检验,模型预测效果比较理想,是一种值得研究并不断完善的精细化直接预测方法。By the statistics of the snow disasters occurred in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province during 1961-2008,regions where snow disasters occurred are divided into six sub-regions,for each sub-region,precipitation,air temperature and rainfall days during prophase period and precipitation,air temperature during current period as factors,based on ensuring the reliability greater than 0.1,factors of bigger correlation coefficient are determined.Using linear regression equation prediction model,space-partitioned and monthly-variational snow days as well as snow quantity in pastoral areas of Qinghai Province are predicted.According to ＂snowstorm standard（DB63/T372-2001）in Qinghai＂,early warming can be made of corresponding levels of the monthly scale snowstorm.By testing,the model has a relatively ideal prediction effect,and it is a fine direct method which is worthy of study and continuous improvement.

关 键 词：雪灾 月尺度 精细化预测 青海牧区 

分 类 号：R468.025[医药卫生—临床医学]