马铃薯晚疫病传播的数学建模与仿真模拟  

MODELING AND NUMERICAL SIMULATING OF POTATO LATE BLIGHT EPIDEMICS

作　　者：杨牧野[1] 李颖[2] 于倩[1] 黄海洋[1] 张辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学数学科学学院,数学与复杂系统教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国农业科学院蔬菜花卉研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第5期441-447,共7页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(10971142)

摘　　要：运用数学建模和仿真模拟方法研究不同品种马铃薯混种方式对晚疫病的防治效果.首先,针对马铃薯晚疫病病原菌在植物上繁殖和在空间中传播的特点建立偏微分方程的传染病模型.模型的数值结果反映了晚疫病形成与传染的空间分布和时间变化规律,与田间一些观测现象相吻合.然后通过灵敏度分析,探讨了叶片大小、孢子囊感染效率和病斑半径最大增长速率等诸多参数对疫情发展的影响.最后,构造了具有不同参数值的四类马铃薯品种的各种混种方式,通过计算仿真模拟,比较了晚疫病在的不同混种方式下的传染过程.实验结果表明随机混种方式具有较好的抗病效果.Mixed planting for varied potatoes were examined for control of potato late blight epidemics with mathematical modeling and numerical simulation.The epidemic model of partial differential equations was constructed based on traits of P.infestans,which showed production on the potato plant but spreading by air.Numerical models showed spatial distribution and temporal variation of the epidemic,reflecting phenomena observed in the field.Impact of certain parameters governing epidemic development was examined by sensitivity analysis,parameters such as leaf size,sporangium infection efficiency,maximum radial growth rate of lesion.Certain modes of mixed planting varied potatoes with different parameters were made,such that the inflection processing could be compared numerically among different modes.Data showed that the random mixed planting approach achieved a preferable effect in regard to resistance.

关 键 词：马铃薯晚疫病 不同品种混种方式 偏微分方程模型 时空动态 数值仿真模拟 

分 类 号：S532[农业科学—作物学]