流动性约束视角下我国房价财富效应与最优利率规则研究  

The Wealth Effect of Housing Prices and Optimal Interest Rate Rule in China From Liquidity Constraints Perspective

作　　者：邓瑛[1,2] 赵雪 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院 [2]中央财经大学金融学院 [3]中国国际金融有限公司研究部

出　　处：《投资研究》2011年第9期43-54,共12页Review of Investment Studies

基　　金：2010年教育部人文社科青年项目(10YJC790043);湖北省教育厅2009年度青年项目(2009b071);中南财经政法大学金融学国家重点学科建设项目(2010FINA0007);中央财经大学金融学院211工程3期科研创新基金项目的资助;中国博士后科学基金第四批特别资助项目(201104226)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：后危机时代中国房价的波动引起了广泛关注,如何利用以货币政策为代表的宏观调控抑制高房价透支未来经济发展的程度,成为当前管理层高度关注的焦点。本文建立了新凯恩斯模型框架分析房价波动如何通过流动性约束影响消费,从而揭示了中央银行货币政策与房价的财富效应之间的关系,得出最优利率规则中房价的最优权重随预期通胀、产出缺口、房价和名义利率而变动的结论。通过实证分析本文进而认为,利率规则比货币供应量更能迅速调控房价的增长和居民消费的扩张。中国房价上涨的财富效应虽然比较明显,但流动性约束的作用机制需要一个过程才能显现,利率调控的效果也有一个量变到质变的过程,从而在理论上为中央银行制定应对房价的利率政策提供了一定启示。The volatility of housing prices in the post-crisis period has aroused great attention. The authority is focusing on how to use macro-control measures such as monetary policy to avoid the negative effect of high housing prices on economic development. This paper sets up a new Keynesian model to analyze how the housing prices influence consumption through liquidity constraints, illustrates the relationship between monetary policy and the wealth effect of housing prices, and comes to the conclusion that the optimal weight of housing price in the interest rate rule changes according to the expected inflation, output gap, housing price and nominal interest rate. The empirical results show that the interest rate rule works better than the money supply. Although the wealth effect is obvious in China, the mechanism of liquidity constraints still needs a process, which provides inspirations for the central bank to set an interest rate rule for housing prices.

关 键 词：最优利率规则 房价 财富效应 流动性约束 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F822.0F224