元胞自动机和多主体模型在土地利用变化模拟中的应用  

Cellular Automata Model and Multi-agent Model for the Simulation of Land Use Change:A Review

作　　者：郭欢欢[1] 李波[1] 侯鹰[1] 孙特生[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2011年第11期1336-1344,共9页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40871135);国家重点基础研究(973)项目(2007CB106807)

摘　　要：土地利用变化模拟研究是土地利用变化研究的重要分支。复杂系统理论的完善和系统模拟平台的发展使得复杂系统模拟方法在土地利用变化模拟研究中的优势越来越明显,元胞自动机模型和多主体模型正是基于复杂系统理论模拟研究的代表。本文简要回顾了土地利用变化模拟研究进展,探讨了土地利用变化的内在机理,着重分析了元胞自动机和多主体模型的内涵、研究热点、模拟平台和优缺点等,并对其今后在土地利用变化模拟研究的发展趋势进行了展望,以期为土地利用变化模拟研究提供参考。Land use change simulation study is an important branch of the land use change research. The development of the complex system theory and simulation platform makes more and more complex system simulation methods used in the research of land use change. Cellular automaton model and multi-agent model are designed based on complex system theory. We introduce the development of the land use change simulation studies in this paper. We find that the mechanism of land use change is a complex system which is composed of individuals, community, resource and envrionment. Then, we discuss the meaning, main topics, simulation platform, advantages and limitations of cellular automaton model and multi-agent model. We also recommend future directions for land use change simulation research, which include the theoretical research, CA and MAS integration, and transition rules or decision making. It is significant to design a simulation platform suitable for China.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 多主体模型 土地利用变化 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] S126[农业科学—农业基础科学]