气候变化下极端水文事件的研究进展  

Progress in the Study of Extreme Hydrologic Events Under Climate Change

作　　者：张利平[1] 杜鸿[1] 夏军[2] 徐霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2011年第11期1370-1379,共10页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目(2010CB428406);国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730632);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(20102060201000066)

摘　　要：气候异常变化导致洪涝灾害、干旱等极端水文事件的发生及其增加的水灾害风险正成为人类生存所面临的重大挑战。近年来,开展气候变化背景下流域极端水文事件的变化趋势、发生机理及其对气候变化的响应与预测研究正逐渐受到国内外众多学者的关注。本文从极端水文事件的定义、研究方法、水文极值分布函数、观测事实及模拟研究等方面分析评述了极端水文事件问题的研究现状和研究成果。在此基础上,讨论了研究现状存在的问题并对该领域未来研究方向进行了展望。Extreme hydrologic events such as floods and droughts caused by abnormal climate change and increased risks of water disasters are becoming the major challenges to the survival of the people survival. In recent years, the research on the change trend, mechanisms, response and prediction of the climate change of the extreme hydrologic events in basins under climate change is drawing more and more attention from the scholars at home and abroad. This paper begins with the definitions of extreme hydrologic events, and then analyzes and reviews the research methods, and hydrologic extreme value distribution, as well as the observation and simulation of extreme hydrologic events. On this basis, this paper makes a discussion on the problems in the present research. The directions of further research are also provided.

关 键 词：气候变化 极端水文事件 极端降水 极端洪涝 极端干旱 极值分布 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]