2008年低温雨雪冰冻对武汉城市公共交通的影响评估  

EVALUATION OF EFFECT OF SLEETING AND FREEZING PROCESS WITH LOW TEMPERATURE ON PUBLIC TRAFFIC OF WUHAN CITY IN 2008

作　　者：李兰[1] 陈正洪[1] 刘敏[1] 史瑞琴[1] 邓雯[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉区域气候中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2011年第11期1400-1404,共5页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目:<南方冰雪灾害天气预测预警评估技术研究>(2008BAC48B00);华中区域气象中心气象灾害评估创新团队基金

摘　　要：为了对2008年低温雨雪期间气象条件对城市交通运输的影响给出定量评估,运用天气分析及统计学方法,分析了低温雨雪冰冻期间武汉市主要气候特征,利用2008年初持续低温雨雪期间武汉城市公共交通线路(包括公交车、轮渡、汽渡)逐日停运数据,定义了持续低温雨雪冰冻过程城市公共交通影响度,通过统计分析,找到了关键气象因子、关键期和低温临界指标,建立了气象评估模型。结果表明:在持续低温雨雪冰冻过程中,初发时期是公共交通影响的关键时期之一,影响度与积雪深度关系最密切,在公交车、轮渡、汽渡3种交通工具中,公交车影响度与气象要素的相关最密切,对武汉城市公交车造成明显影响的临界气温是1.7℃。该结论在实际的气象灾害评估业务工作中进行了运用,效果良好。Using synoptic analysis and statistical methods,the paper analyzed the major climate characteristics of Wuhan city during the durative sleeting and freezing process with low temperature in 2008,in order to quantitatively evaluate the influences of meteorological factors on city urban transportation.Using the daily outage data of public traffic lines（including bus,ferry and steam ferry）of Wuhan city from Jan 12th to Feb 3rd,the paper defined the effect degree of public traffic during the durative sleeting and freezing process with low temperature.In term of statistical analysis,the key meteorological factors,key period and critical value of low temperature were found,and meteorological evaluation model was set up.The results show that during the durative sleeting and freezing process with low temperature,initial period was one of the key periods when the public traffic suffers from effect,and the relation between the effect degree and snow depth was closest.In three vehicles including bus,ferry and steam ferry,the relation between the effect degree of bus and meteorological factors was closest.The critical value of low temperature was 1.7℃,and it could cause obvious effect on bus of Wuhan city.The impact is all right that above-mentioned conclusions were put to use in the actual evaluation operation of meteorological disasters.

关 键 词：低温雨雪冰冻 城市公共交通 影响度 评估 致灾临界气象条件 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]