考虑竞争与差异化的多代汽车产品扩散实证研究  

Empirical Research on Multi-generations Vehicle Product Diffusion Considering Competition and Heterogeneity

作　　者：赵小羽[1] 成艾国[1] 沈阳[1] 钟志华[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学汽车车身先进设计制造国家重点实验室,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《系统工程》2011年第9期9-15,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：湖南大学汽车车身先进设计制造国家重点实验室自主研究课题(60870002);教育部长江学者与创新团队发展计划项目(531105050037)

摘　　要：竞争与差异化对多代产品的扩散有影响作用,从而限制了基本的多代产品扩散模型应用。通过构建反映竞争的潜在采用者变化函数,并且根据产品差异化特性定义不同的影响系数,对基本多代产品扩散模型做出修正,得到考虑竞争和差异化的多代产品扩散模型。同时,分析了非线性最小二乘法和遗传算法的特点,提出遗传算法与非线性最小二乘法相结合的两步参数估计方法。以我国汽车产品细分市场之一的微型客车产品为实例,对技术创新引发的产品更新换代——平头微型客车和凸头微型客车进行实证研究,将多代产品的竞争和差异化因素作为变量融入扩散模型,分析微型客车产品的扩散规律。研究结论表明,加入竞争与差异化因素后,多代产品扩散模型在解释能力和预测能力上均优于基本模型,能够为我国汽车产品扩散进程提供策略参考。Based on the theory of multi-generation products diffusion,competition and heterogeneity were incorporated in the classical multi-generation products diffusion model.A model which assumes that competition and heterogeneity variables simultaneously influenced the diffusion of successive generation product at different levels was proposed to examine the impact of factors of product diffusion.Different algorithms for parameter estimation impact the fitting results.So a two-step estimation method combining GA（Genetic Algorithm） with NLS（Nonlinear Least Squares） was analyzed.The results of Chinese mini passenger vehicle in recent 19 years indicate that the competition and heterogeneity play an important role in multi-generation products diffusion.Meanwhile,the empirical results also validate the effectiveness of incorporating competition and heterogeneity variables in multi-generation products diffusion model.

关 键 词：技术创新 产品扩散 多代产品 微型客车 

分 类 号：F713[经济管理—产业经济]