基于BASS模型的危机信息扩散模式  

Crisis Information Diffusion Model Based on BASS Model

作　　者：魏玖长[1] 周磊[1] 赵定涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥230026

出　　处：《系统工程》2011年第9期16-22,20-22,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(61004108);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点支持项目(91024027);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-10-0920)

摘　　要：有效的危机信息传播在危机管理中至关重要。为了研究危机信息在不同传播方式下的扩散特征,本文基于BA SS模型,构建了公共危机事件后正确信息与谣言信息的扩散模型,并通过M atlab软件模拟了不同参数条件下两类信息的扩散规律及扩散状态差异。分析结果表明,两类信息扩散曲线的增长幅度受到渠道系数的影响,最终的扩散规模与非正式渠道信息准确度存在正相关的关系。要提高危机信息传播的有效性,危机管理部门可以从扩大正式渠道的覆盖范围、提高信息发布的准确性与权威性、加强公众的应急素质教育以及转变谣言管理态度等方面入手。Effective crisis information dissemination is critical in crisis management.In order to study the diffusion characteristics of crisis information under different modes of transmission,this paper,based on BASS Model,constructs the diffusion model of true information and rumor information after the public crisis,simulates the diffusion rules and state differences of two types of information under the condition of different parameters through the Matlab software.The result shows that the growth of two types of information diffusion curve is affected by channel coefficients;that it has positive relationship between the final scale and information accuracy in informal channels.To improve the effectiveness of crisis information dissemination,crisis management departments could expand the coverage of formal channels,improve the accuracy and authority of information issuance,enhance the public emergency education and change the rumor management attitude.

关 键 词：管理工程 危机信息扩散模型 系统仿真 BASS模型 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]