WTI和Brent原油价格倒挂的原因及其影响  

Causes and influence of the WTI-Brent spread anomaly

作　　者：褚王涛[1] 徐召辉 

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院项目评价所 [2]昆仑银行股份有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2011年第9期7-14,108,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：进入2011年,国际原油市场出现了历史罕见的WTI和Brent原油价格持续严重倒挂的现象,并威胁到现行国际原油定价机制的运行。分析此次二者异常倒挂的原因:WTI原油市场单向半封闭的海运流向和北美原油运输管网特征有利于WTI原油市场保持供过于求;美国内炼油厂开工率下降和从加拿大进口原油增加导致库欣地区原油库存激增;中东北非政治局势动荡加剧了美欧原油价格倒挂。美国经济复苏的长期性和北美石油管道运输的稳定结构决定了本轮WTI和Brent原油价格异常倒挂持续的时间可能会较长。目前,WTI与绝大多数的地区原油已经失去挂钩关系,丧失了作为世界基准原油的功能,其价格存在明显的低估;与之相比,Brent原油价格更能代表当前国际原油价格的真实水平。由于美国和加拿大特殊的原油进出口关系,Canadian Par原油仍然与WTI保持挂钩关系,并因此而被不公正地低估。Since the start of 2011,an unprecedented continuous sharp WTI-Brent spread anomaly takes place in the international oil market,which has threatened the current international oil pricing mechanism.The reasons include:the one-way semi-enclosed shipping transportation flows for the WTI market and the characteristics of North American oil transportation pipeline network contribute to supply in excess of demand in WTI market;the decrease of the U.S.refinery capacity utilization ratio and the increase of Canadian oil import result in sharp rise of the Cushing oil stock;the political situation turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa intensify the degree of the WTI-Brent spread anomaly.The paper believes that the WTI-Brent spread anomaly in 2011 may last for a long time,because the economy recovery in the United States needs more time and the current U.S.oriented oil transportation pipeline network in North America is not easy to change.Currently,WTI has lost the relationship with the majority of regional oil,can no longer work as the world benchmark oil,and its price has been undervalued obviously;compared with WTI,Brent can represent the realistic price level of the international oil.Due to unique import and export relationship between the U.S.and Canada,Canadian Par Oil still keeps the relationship with WTI and therefore its price has been undervalued unfairly.

关 键 词：WTI Brent 原油价差 基准原油 价格倒挂 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]