煤层气地面开发项目经济预测及规模报酬评价  

Evaluation of returns to scale and economic forecast of a CBM development project

作　　者：秦学成[1,2] 段永刚[1] 王运海[2] 谢学恒[2] 王世明[3] 陈玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学 [2]中国石化华东分公司石油勘探开发研究院 [3]西北大学

出　　处：《天然气工业》2011年第11期107-110,131,共4页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：中国石化集团科技项目(编号:P09008)

摘　　要：根据国内外相关研究成果,以利润(包括补贴)为目标量优化了煤层气地面开发项目经济预测模型,并基于柯布—道格拉斯生产函数所建立的估计模型,运用经济预测数据对煤层气地面开发项目规模报酬进行了评价。研究发现:煤层气地面开发项目中资本产出弹性与劳动产出弹性之和约等于1,即规模报酬不变。预测结果显示,煤层气地面开发项目中,大规模生产具有优越性,企业可品尝到生产规模扩张的好处。但规模扩张并非是无止境的,结合经济预测模型,可得出不同开发期的最优钻井数,从而制订有效的开发方案,有助于在实施项目中获得规划优势。该方法在煤层气地面开发项目中已得到较好的应用。Based on the previous research results at home and abroad,an optimized economic forecast model is built for a CBM ground development project taking the profit(including the policy subsidies)as target variables.Then,in combination with the Cobb-Douglas Production Function,the returns to scale of this CBM project is evaluated by use of the economic forecasting data.If the capital and labor output elasticity of a CBM development project is approximately equal to 1,i.e.,if a+b=1,it refers to that the returns to scale remains unchanged;if a+b>1,it refers to that the returns to scale is increasing;if a+b<1,it refers to that the returns to scale is decreasing.The forecasting results show that a large-scale production is preferable for a CBM ground development project,from which the company responsible for this project will benefit.However,the expansion of the CBM production scale is never limitless,according to this economic forecasting model,the optimal numbers of drilling wells can be obtained at different development stages.On this basis,an effective development plan can be made,thereby to play an important role of good programming in the implementation of this CBM project.This method has been successfully applied in many CBM gas development projects.

关 键 词：煤层气 地面开采 经济预测模型 柯布 道格拉斯函数 规模报酬 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F224