我国民用汽车拥有水平影响因素分析-多元二次回归法  

The Analysis about Influence Factor of China's Civil Car Ownership-Multiple Quadratic Regression

作　　者：高伟[1] 程文明[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学科学技术学院,南昌330029

出　　处：《科技和产业》2011年第11期98-100,共3页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JJ0745)

摘　　要：准确预测未来汽车保有量,对产业调整、城市基建、车市调控和能源、环保策略等具有重要意思。根据主要省份的相关统计数据,采用各地区横向比较法分析人均GDP、基尼系数、公共交通、汽车成本对汽车拥有水平的影响,并以江西省为例,通过多元二次回归分析建立了基于人均GDP、汽车成本和城市万人拥有公交车数的民用汽车保有量预测模型,并对未来10年汽车拥有水平走势进行预测。Accurately forecast the future vehicle population is important to industry adjust, urban construction, adjust market, ear market regulation, energy and environmental policy. According to the statistic data of main provinces, by adopting transverse comparison ,analyse the influence of pecapita GDP, gini coefficient, public transportation, car cost to the car ownership, in Jiangxi province as an example, through the multiple regression analysis, a forecasting model is builded base on the pecapita GDP, car cost and number of public transportation vehicles per 10000.

关 键 词：汽车保有量 人均GDP 影响因素 多元二次回归 

分 类 号：F407.4[经济管理—产业经济]