国际资本流动对房价波动风险的影响分析——基于山东省的实证研究(2002Q1-2010Q2)  

The Impact of International Capital Flow on Housing Price Fluctuations:An Empirical Study of Shandong Province

作　　者：焦继文[1] 郭灿[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学管理学院,济南250100 [2]天津大学管理学院,天津300072

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2011年第6期49-53,共5页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：山东省社科规划重点研究项目"国际资本流动环境下的我国房地产市场风险预警研究"(项目编号05Bjj21)的资助

摘　　要：国际资本流动是引发房地产市场风险的重要因素。利用山东省2002Q1-2010Q2的数据为样本,通过分析国际资本流动与房价波动之关系,确定了国际资本流动对房价波动风险的影响。结论是:国际资本流动与房价之间的相互影响较为明显,它比土地价格对房价的影响还要大,而且国内房价对国际资本流动的敏感度较高。故为防范房价的波动风险,相关监管部门需对国际资本的流向给予足够重视。International capital flow is a sig;nificant factor triggering real estate market risks. By analyzing the relationship between international capital flow and housing price fluctuations, this paper confirms the influence of international capital flow on the fluctuation risk of the housing price, using 2002Ql -2010Q2 data in Shandong province. It is found that international capital flow has a substantial impact on housing prices, which is greater than the impact of land prices on housing price. In addition, domestic house prices are found to be very sensitive to international capital flow. Consequently, relevant supervisory departments should pay enough attention to international capital flows to avoid and/or reduce housing price fluctuation risks.

关 键 词：国际资本流动 房价 波动风险 GRANGER因果分析 蒙特卡罗 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]