基于模糊故障树理论的水声干扰子弹故障评估  

Failure Assessment of Acoustic Interference Shrapnel Based on Fuzzy Fault-tree

作　　者：曾星星[1] 李宏勇[2] 顾晓辉[1] 成凤生[1] 年岗[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学机械工程学院,南京210094 [2]唐山师范学院,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《弹箭与制导学报》2011年第5期226-229,共4页Journal of Projectiles,Rockets,Missiles and Guidance

摘　　要：由于水声干扰子弹试验现场缺乏必要的可靠性数据,传统故障树分析法无法对系统可靠性进行分析。为了研究该子弹的可靠性,文中利用模糊故障树分析法,结合现场专家评估,获得了各个基本事件的模糊故障概率,并得到试验子弹失效概率,与试验现场子弹失效概率比较一致。通过对基本事件概率重要度分析,能有效地对较大安全隐患引起足够重视,对该子弹后续研究提供一定的方便。Due to the lack of reliable date obtained from real test scenario of acoustic interference shrapnel,the traditional fault tree method cannot be used to evaluate the safety of system.In order to study the reliability of the shrapnel,the fuzzy fault-tree analysis method was used to calculate the failure probability of each basic event with expert judgment.The failure probability of shrapnel was obtained,the result agreed well with the experiment one.More attention may be paid to the potential danger after the analysis of the priority of the basic events,and can be of reference to the later work.

关 键 词：水声干扰子弹 模糊故障树 专家评估 失效概率 

分 类 号：TJ413.9[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]