基于灰色马尔可夫模型的上海房地产业外商直接投资预测  

The Application of Gray-Mardov Estimation Model in the Prediction of Foreign Direct Investment in Shanghai Real Estate Market

作　　者：刘芳[1] Liu Fang (Economic Management School, Shanghai Electronic Machine College, Shanghai, 200245)

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济视角（下）》2008年第7期25-27,共3页Economic Vision

基　　金：上海高校选拔培养优秀青年教师科研专项基金(教委项目编号:29-024-2)

摘　　要： 灰色马尔可夫模型兼有灰色模型和马尔可夫预测的优点,能对较短的时间序列数据进行建模预测。本文尝试将该模型应用于上海房地产业外商直接投资的预测分析,从而为政府制定宏观调控决策提供依据。研究结果表明,灰色马尔可夫模型在上海房地产业外商直接投资的预测中具有较强的适用性。The Gray-Mardov Estimation Model, which has both the advantages of Gray Estimation Model and Mardov Estimation Model, can build model and predict results from the data in short period. This article tries to sue this model in the prediction of foreign direct investment in Shanghai real estate market, in order to provide the basis for the government on decision making for macroeconomic adjustment and control. This research indicates that Gray-Mardov Estimation Model has relatively strong applicability in the prediction of foreign direct investment in Shanghai real estate market.

关 键 词：上海市房地产业 外商直接投资 灰色模型 马尔可夫预测 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F224[经济管理—国民经济]