Prediction of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers for solar cycle 24  

作　　者：WANG JiaLong MIAO Juan LIU SiQing GONG JianCun ZHU CuiLian 

机构地区：[1]National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100012,China [2]Center for Space Science and Applied Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080,China

出　　处：《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》2008年第12期1938-1946,共9页中国科学：物理学、力学、天文学（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10673017 and 10733020) ;the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB806307)

摘　　要：The prediction for the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (hereafter SMSNs) of solar cycle 23, which was given with a similar cycle method proposed by us at the beginning time of cycle 23, is analyzed and verified in this paper. Using our predicted maximum SMSN and the ascending length for solar cycle 24, and as- suming their relative errors to be respectively 20% and ± 7 months, solar cycles 2, 4, 8, 11, 17, 20 and 23 are selected to be the similar cycles to cycle 24. The selected solar cycles are divided into two groups. The first group consists of all the selected cycles; while the second group consists of only cycles 11, 17, 20 and 23. Two SMSN time profiles then may be obtained, respectively, for the two similar cycle groups. No significant difference is found between the two predicted time profiles. Consid- ering the latest observed sunspot number so far available for cycle 23 and the pre- dictions for the minimum SMSN of cycle 24, a date calibration is done for the ob- tained time profiles, and thus, SMSNs for 127 months of cycle 24, from October 2007 to April 2018, are predicted.The prediction for the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (hereafter SMSNs) of solar cycle 23, which was given with a similar cycle method proposed by us at the beginning time of cycle 23, is analyzed and verified in this paper. Using our predicted maximum SMSN and the ascending length for solar cycle 24, and assuming their relative errors to be respectively 20% and ± 7 months, solar cycles 2, 4, 8, 11, 17, 20 and 23 are selected to be the similar cycles to cycle 24. The selected solar cycles are divided into two groups. The first group consists of all the selected cycles; while the second group consists of only cycles 11, 17, 20 and 23. Two SMSN time profiles then may be obtained, respectively, for the two similar cycle groups. No significant difference is found between the two predicted time profiles. Considering the latest observed sunspot number so far available for cycle 23 and the predictions for the minimum SMSN of cycle 24, a date calibration is done for the obtained time profiles, and thus, SMSNs for 127 months of cycle 24, from October 2007 to April 2018, are predicted.

关 键 词：SOLAR CYCLE SUNSPOT NUMBERS PREDICTION of CYCLE 24 

分 类 号：P182.41[天文地球—天文学]