树木直径生长的时间序列及灰色预测模型比较  

Comparative research on forecasting models of diameter growth of trees based on rescale range analysis and grey theory.

作　　者：罗旭[1,2] 程承旗[1] 冯仲科[3] 岳德鹏[3] 陈晓雪[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学地球与空间科学学院 [2]中国计量科学研究院 [3]北京林业大学测绘与3S技术中心

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2008年第S1期208-213,共6页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金："863"国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2006AA706209-2);国家自然科学基金项目(90302014)

摘　　要：该文以解析木数据为基础,从整体上对甘肃省小陇山地区的华山松等斛析木的树干形状进行描述,采用R/S方法即时间序列分析法,对树木直径的生长过程进行了分析。研究发现,随着树龄的增加,直径生长的霍斯特指数(H指数)值也呈现增加的趋势,并以此建立了直径生长的H指数预测模型;同时应用灰色理论,根据得到的H指数数据,建立了华山松和锐齿栎的直径生长H指数灰色动态预测GM(1,1)模型,分析了直径生长的动态变化特征。R/S分析结果充分反映了树水直径动态生长过程随时间尺度变化的分形特征,进而为森林资源的动态监测奠定基础。Based on the data of parse trees,this paper described whole trunk form of parse trees of Pinus armandii and Quercus aliena var.acuteserrata in Xiaolong Mountains,Gansu Province,northwestern China and analyzed the growth process adopting the R/S (rescale range analysis).The results show the Hurst index values increased with the increase of ages,and the Hurst index forecasting model of diameter growth was set up.According to grey theory and Hurst index,the grey forecasting model (GM (1.1)) of P.armandii and Q.aliena var.acuteserrata was established and the dynamic variation characteristics of diameter growth were analyzed.The results of R/S analysis reflect the fractal characteristics of dynamic diameter growth with time, and lay the basis for dynamic supervision of forest resources.

关 键 词：解析木 R/S 方法 霍斯特指数 灰色理论 

分 类 号：S711[农业科学—林学]