基于Gompertz曲线的武器研制费用—时间模型  

Development Expenses-Time Model of a Weapon System Based on Gompertz Curve

作　　者：徐宗昌[1] 姜晨[1] 

机构地区：[1]装甲兵工程学院,北京100072

出　　处：《弹箭与制导学报》2005年第S7期377-379,共3页Journal of Projectiles,Rockets,Missiles and Guidance

摘　　要：利用由 Gompertz 曲线推导出的生命周期曲线,建立了武器研制费用—时间模型。计算表明,由Gompertz 曲线推导出的生命周期曲线可以较好地反映武器研制费用与时间之间的关系,所建立的研制费用—时间模型的预测结果也较好,具有较高的实用性。This paper presents a method of utilizing life cycle curve which is obtained from Gompertz curve to establish the model which reflects the relationship between the development expenses and the development time of a weapon sys- tem.The results show that this kind of life cycle curve can reflects preferably the relationship between the development expenses and the development time of a weapon system and the forecasting results obtained from the model are effec- tive.So this model has a higher practicability.

关 键 词：Gompenz 曲线 生命周期曲线 异常值 时间因子 

分 类 号：E920[军事—军事装备学]