城市暴雨的细化预测实例分析  

Detailed Forecast and Analysis to Urban Rainstorm

作　　者：陆雅君[1] 陈刚毅[1] 张静[1] 陈明轩[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089

出　　处：《成都信息工程学院学报》2011年第5期517-521,共5页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：中国气象局2010年度城市气象科学研究基金资助项目(UMRF201006)

摘　　要：为了提高暴雨预测准确率和降低城市暴雨造成的危害和损失。使用大气探空和自动气象站1次/分钟的观测资料,以"信息确定性"和"时间不占有物质维"的观点,采用非规则信息数字化分析方法,对城市暴雨预测进行实用性分析。结合2004年6月29日至30日成都地区的暴雨实例,通过将复杂的数量信息转化为方位角的相空间结构信息,对暴雨发生前后的风速、风向、温度、湿度分别进行相空间分析,结果表明相空间图配合V-3θ结构图能够对城市暴雨进行细化预测。For improving predictive accuracy of the urbon rainstorm and minimizing the consequent damage and loss. By employing the irregular digitization of information obtained from sounding data on significant spheres and from the records of automatic weather stations once a minute in this paper, on the basis of the concept of information certainties and that time does not occupy any material dimension, we make use of the structural analysis method to study practical applications of prediction by looking at the real-life rainstorms that occurred in Chengdu area June 29 - 30, 2004. This method converts the complicated digital information into structures in phase space, and then analyze pro-cesses of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity before and after the storm, when combined with the V-3 0 structural graphs, we are able to realize the detailed forecast of the time and striking region of urban rainstorm.

关 键 词：大气物理学与大气环境 防灾减灾 城市暴雨 细化预测 相空间 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]