军人精神疾病预测量表对新兵精神疾病预测效果的分析  

Analysis of the prediction validity of the military mental disorder prediction scale on the mental disorder of new recruits

作　　者：魏红辉[1] 张理义[2] 余海鹰[2] 汪广剑[2] 陈方斌[2] 高志勤[2] 熊富先[3] 袁水平[3] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学临床医学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]解放军102医院全军心理疾病防治中心,江苏常州213003 [3]解放军92医院,福建南平353000

出　　处：《解放军医学杂志》2011年第11期1223-1225,共3页Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army

摘　　要：目的探讨军人精神疾病预测量表对新兵精神疾病的预测效果并分析新兵精神疾病的危险因素。方法采用军人精神疾病预测量表调查2007-2009年6.4万余名新兵,筛查出预测阳性的高危人群并进行随访,观察其在部队特定环境中的精神疾病总发病率和不同时段(1～6个月、7～12个月、12个月以上)发病率预测效果。将2007-2009年3年内新患精神疾病的新兵作为病例组,抽取同期健康新兵作为对照组进行配对分析,探讨精神疾病预测量表的预测敏感度与特异度,并采用χ2检验分析家族和既往史、成长经历、个性内向、应激源、心理防御不良、社会支持等6个因子与新兵精神疾病的关系。结果 64 356名新兵中有163例发生精神疾病;预测量表为阳性者421例,其中发生精神疾病156例。该量表预测的新兵精神疾病总发病率为37.1%,1～6个月、7～12个月、12个月以上新兵精神疾病预测发病率分别为24.0%、9.7%、3.6%。其精神疾病的预测敏感度为95.71%,特异度为87.73%。χ2检验显示,家族和既往史(OR=3.17,P<0.05)、个性内向(OR=4.42,P<0.05)、心理防御不良(OR=2.91,P<0.05)为新兵精神疾病的危险因素。结论军人精神疾病预测量表对新兵精神疾病具有较好的预测效果;家族和既往史、个性内向、心理防御不良为新兵精神疾病的危险因素,在新兵精神疾病筛查中应重点关注。Objective To examine the prediction validity of the Military Mental Disorder Prediction Scale on the mental disorder of new recruits.Methods The present study surveyed 64356 new recruits from 2007 to 2009 with the Military Mental Disorder Prediction Scale.High-risk recruits predicted as positive by the Military Mental Disorder Prediction Scale were screened out and kept track of to observe the prediction validity on the general incidence rate of mental disorder in the army environment and the incidence rate at different periods（1 month to 6 months,7 months to 12 months,and more than 12 months）.The present study designated new recruits with initial onset of mental disorder within three years as the mental disorder group and compared them with the contrast group of healthy new recruits at the same period to examine the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction by the Mental Disorder Prediction Scale.Then,the study adopted Chi-square test to analyze the relationship between six factors（family medical history,past medical history,growth experience,introversion,stressor,poor metal defense,and social support） and the prediction of the mental disorder of new recruits.Results Up to 421 cases are predicted by the scale as positive among 64356 new recruits,among whom 156 have mental disorder.As predicted by the scale,the general incidence rate of recruits is 37.1%,and the incidence rate is 24.0% within 1 month to 6 months,9.7% within 7 months to 12 months,and 3.6% after 12 months.The prediction sensitivity of mental disorder is 95.71%,and the specificity is 87.73%.The Chi-square test shows that family medical history and past medical history（OR=3.17,P〈0.05）,introversion（OR=4.42,P〈0.05）,and poor mental defense（OR=2.91,P〈0.05） are contributive factors to the mental disorder of new recruits.Conclusions The Military Mental Disorder Prediction Scale has better prediction validity for the mental disorder of new recruits.Family medical record,past medical record,introversion,and poor mental defense a

关 键 词：军事人员 精神疾病 发病率 危险因素 

分 类 号：R395.1[哲学宗教—心理学]