1998年中国科学院大气物理研究所气候与环境预测研究中心汛期暴雨短期数值预测  

Short Range Heavy Rain Numerical Prediction in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences during Rainy Season of 1998

作　　者：陈红[1] 孙建华[1] 贝耐芳[1] 王俊[1] 张宝严 杜长萱[1] 蔡则怡[1] 赵思雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》1998年第4期95-102,共8页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：中国科学院重点基金;中国科学院大气物理所所长择优基金;国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：对１９９８年夏季汛期（６～８月）天气过程进行了分析；在６～８月期间用ＩＡＰ－ＥＴＡ暴雨数值预报模式进行了每天的２４小时的降水实时预报；首次采用从Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ网上获取的ＮＣＥＰ资料，作为初值。预报的结果表明，ＥＴＡ坐标有限区域模式对暴雨预报有较好的参考价值；ＮＣＥＰ资料是有用的，尤其是在高原和广大海洋资料稀少地区。The very severe flooding occurred in the Changjinag River during rainy season of 1998. In this paper, heavy rainfall processes are analyzed from June to August and the results of the real time heavy rain numerical predictions by IAP ETA Model are introduced. NCEP data is used as initial fields for input of the ETA model since 1998 and predictional results are showed publicly through Internet. The predictional products showed that ETA coordinate limited area numerical model is one of very useful tools for the prediction of heavy rainfall during rainy season of 1998. And, NCEP data is also very helpful to prediction, especially in the data-sparse areas of Tibetan Plateau and vast ocean.

关 键 词：ETA坐标模式 夏季汛期降水 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]