气候变化对水文和水资源影响研究综述  

A REVIEW OF THE STUDIES OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

作　　者：邓慧平[1] 吴正方[1] 唐来华[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学草地研究所,东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院,东北师范大学图书馆

出　　处：《地理学报》1996年第S1期161-170,共10页Acta Geographica Sinica

摘　　要：本文从研究方法、研究内容、己有的成果和存在的问题等几个方面综述了气似变化对水文、水资源的影响。One of the most important consequences of global climatic changes caused by increases in atmospheric trace gas concentrations is alterations in regional hydrologic cycles and subsequent effects on the quantity and quality of regional water resources. The impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources have gained widespread attentions of scientists and governments since recent ten years. In this paper, We review the studies of the impacts on hydrology and water resources, including the researchmethodologies, research contents, achievements and inadequacies of past research works.The methodology of impact assessment is to use future climate scenarios, which can be generatedusing GCMs outputs, recent climate analogue data, paleoclimate data and hypothetical climate data, asinputs to more detailed regional models to assess the impacts of climate changes on hydrological cycles andWater resources. In spite of different scenarios and hydrologic models employed by researchers, three research results are in common.Due to the complexity of water resource management and the uncertainty of future climate changes,little research has been done in assessment of effects of climate changes on water resource management.Past hydrologic assessments focused on monthly-time scale or longer time scale average changes,rather than on daily-time scale changes. How -climate changes will aft'ect extremes is almost unknown.

关 键 词：气候变化的影响 水文模型 水资源 综述 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]