汕头市火灾损失预测初探  

INITIAL RESEARCH ON PREESTIMATING FIRE LOSSES IN SHANTOU CITY

作　　者：秦效启[1] 钮宏[1] 马云凤[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学,上海200092

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》1995年第S1期119-127,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

摘　　要：本文根据汕头市有关方面1993年1月提供的该市1987年至1993年火灾损失资料,采用灰色系统理论对该市后几年的火灾最低损失值进行预测,表明该系统是着眼于系统未来行为的预控制,是超前控制,因此控制具有实时性与适用性。Studying in January 1993 issued official statistics of fire Lossed in Shantou during past 7 years (from 1987 to 1993) , based on Grey system, the authors estimate the minimum fire losses in Shantou in the future. It means that this system is an fore-control viewing to the expected behavior of the system, in another word, it is an control in advance. Therefore this system executes with timeliness and applicability.

关 键 词：城市防灾 灾害预测 火灾 灰色理论 汕头市 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]