北京市水果产量和面积预测探讨  

Studies on Prdiction of Yield and Planting Area of Fruits in Beijing

作　　者：李金光[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京农学院园艺系,北京102208

出　　处：《北京农学院学报》1993年第2期65-72,共8页Journal of Beijing University of Agriculture

摘　　要：本文根据趋势外推法和灰色系统预测理论进行了北京水果产量和面积预测的数据处理、典型曲线型函数选择、模型精度检验的探讨,并对水果总产量和面积以及苹果、梨、葡萄的产量和面积进行了预测.Studies on prediction of yield and planting area of fruits in Beijng with themethod of trend extension and he theory of grey system prediction is introduced,including treament of source material, selection of typical model nd nalysis ofpredictive precision. And it is given predictive values of yield and planting area of thewhole, apple, pear nd rape from 1991 to 2010 in Beijing.

关 键 词：预测 模型 精度 

分 类 号：S[农业科学]