LASG—REM对1994年中国汛期降水的实时预报试验  

Real-time Precipitation Forecasting Experiments in the Summer China of 1994 by the LASG-REM

作　　者：宇如聪[1] 

机构地区：[1]LASG中国科学院大气物理研究所

出　　处：《大气科学》1994年第S1期801-809,共9页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金;国家科技攻关85-906-04课题

摘　　要：ＬＡＳＧ－ＲＥＭ对１９９４年我国汛期降水连续实时的预报试验结果再次表明了该模式对２４小时短期降水有很强的预报能力。本文给出了该模式从６月上旬到７月下旬连续５０天的降水实时数值预报试验的ＴＳ（ＴｈｒｅａｔＳｃｏｒｅ）技术评分以及发生在６、７、８月份主要降水过程的预报和根据大部分气象站观测降水量分析的２４小时降水量等值线的比较。从６月上旬到７月下旬，ＬＡＳＧ－ＲＥＭ连续５０天的实时降水数值预报试验的ＴＳ技术评分（模式范围）平均为：雨区范围（２４小时降水大于１ｍｍ）预报的ＴＳ值为５６％；２４小时降水大于１０ｍｍ、２５ｍｍ和５０ｍｍ的ＴＳ值分别为３６％、２３％和１５％，较１９９３年的ＴＳ评分有明显的提高。模式对１９９４年造成华南、华北严重洪涝灾害的暴雨都有很好的预报。由于模式中采用了保形水汽平流方案，在整个试验期间的水汽平流计算都未出现负水汽现象。初步的比较试验结果表明，模式中对地形的有效处理和给出较合适的水汽凝结参数对模式成功预报是重要的。LASG-REM has good prediction ability for short-range pre.cipitation, which isdemonstrated again by its real,time precipitation forecasting results in the summerChina of 1994. This paper showes the 50-day real-time prediction threat scores from June 7to July 26 and the main prediction results in June, July and August. The averagethreat scores of four thresholds, 1mm, 10mm, 25mm and 50mm per day in the 50days are 56%, 36%, 23% and 15% respectively, which are obviously higher thanlast year. The model has well predicted the Precipitation area,rainfall intensityand centre locationins the summer of 1994 in China.

关 键 词：暴雨数值预报 保形水汽平流方案 Η坐标 水汽凝结参数 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]