云南省近期疟疾流行因素灰色预测初探  

INVESTIGATION OF FORECAST OF EPIDEMIC CAUSES OF MALARIA IN YUNNAN PROVINCE IN THE RECENT YEAR

作　　者：赵天顺[1] 资云海 孙阳 李永光 董学书[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都军区卫生防疫队,650223 [2]云南省疟疾防治研究所

出　　处：《西南国防医药》1993年第2期78-81,127-128,共6页Medical Journal of National Defending Forces in Southwest China

摘　　要：本文应用灰色系统理论与方法探讨疟原虫的预测。对云南省疟疾流行地区,1986—1990年的1902158名发热病人的两种疟原虫检出率构成的离散数列,建立灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型。预测精度分别为98.45%—98.46%和92.85%—83.03%,并对1991年和1992年作灰色GM(1,1)的推测模型,其中1991年理论值和实际值基本吻合,1992年尚待进一步验证。The forecast of the incidence of the malaria with the Grey Model was discussed in the paper. According to the discrete series data of positive rate of two kinds of plasmodia in screening among 1,902,158 persons with the fever from 1986 to 1990 in the area where the malaria is prevalent in Yunnan Province,the Grey forecasting GM(1,1)model is established. The accuracy of the forecast is 98.45%—98.46% and 92. 85%—93.03%,respectively. The model is used to calculate the detected rate of the plasmodia in 1991 and 1992. The results showed that the predicted values was very similar to the true values in 1991.

关 键 词：间日疟原虫 恶性疟原虫 流行病学 推测模型 灰色系统 

分 类 号：R82[医药卫生—临床医学]