金融市场的复杂性及其认知误区  

The Complexity and Misunderstandings of the Financial Market

作　　者：黄长征[1] 

机构地区：[1]五邑大学经济管理学院,广东江门529020

出　　处：《五邑大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期66-72,共7页Journal of Wuyi University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金资助项目(No.9152902001000022);五邑大学"金融市场学"优质课程建设项目

摘　　要：金融市场在现代经济社会中占有极为重要的地位,从系统复杂性的角度研究金融市场开辟了深入认识金融市场的一个新视角.逻辑方法论和实证方法论作为最重要的两大科学方法论,在金融市场研究中分别遭遇到可预测时限极短、经验不收敛等种种难题,显示出金融复杂性不仅在认识论意义上,而且在本体论意义上是与人脑复杂性、混沌复杂性一样的较高级的复杂性,它不但会误导金融投机者每每做出错误决策而造成"七亏二平一赢"的结局,也会使包括资深研究者在内的相关人士形成关于金融市场的种种认知误区.厘清这些误区的复杂性含义,聚焦于金融理论与金融实践以及金融科学与金融艺术的边界,在理论构建与应用中更多地结合"地方性知识"等实践性因素,充分拓展人脑特有的整体及"取巧"特征,也许正是金融复杂性研究突破固有方法论限制、逐步取得深入的方法论阶梯.The financial market commands a key position in the modern economy and society. Studying the financial market from the angle of system complexity has opened up a new perspective for an in-depth understanding of it. The logic methodology and the empirical methodology as two of the most important scientific methodologies have encountered problems like short prediction time period and experience non-convergence respectively. This shows that the financial complexity is of the same nature as the human brain and chaotic complexity in the epistemological sense as well as in terms of ontology. It can not only mislead financial speculators to make wrong decisions and he caught in 7-1osses-2-draws-l-wins situations hut will also cause professional researchers to have misunderstandings of the financial market. Clarifying the meaning of the complexities, focusing on the borders between financial theory and practice and between financial science and art, taking into consideration practice factors like ＂local knowledge＂ in the construction and application of financial theories, and making use of the unique characteristics of wholeness and ＂trickiness＂ of the human brain are perhaps the methodology ladder to break through the limit of existing methodology in the research into the complexity of the financial market and gradually go to its depth.

关 键 词：金融市场 复杂性 复杂系统 科学方法论 可预测时限 

分 类 号：N941.4[自然科学总论—系统科学] F830.9[经济管理—金融学]