多层加权平均引导台风路径预报方法  

A MULTIPLE-LAYER WEIGHTED MEAN STEERING METHOD OF THE TYPHOON TRACK FORECAST

作　　者：王长甫 余荣华 刘福晓 董克勤 

机构地区：[1]海司气象室 [2]国家气象局气象科学研究院

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1991年第4期434-439,共6页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

摘　　要：通过对较多实例的计算分析,建立了应用地面—500hPa 和地面—300hPa 气压加权引导气流的台风路径预报方程。预报试验表明,它们对中、低纬度台风移动有较好的应用前景,文中对这一方法的依据和预报试验结果进行了比较详细的讨论。According to the calculation and analysis of many cases,four sets of regression equations oftyphoon track forecast,which are derived from the weighted mean steering flows of the pressuresfrom surface to 500hPa and surface to 300hPa levels,are established.The forecast experimentsshow that the equations have better prospect for predicting typhoon tracks in middle and lower lat-itudes.The bases and results of the forecast method are discussed in detail in this paper.

关 键 词：台风路径 引导气流 预报试验 加权平均 移速 预报方程 东风带 预报方法 热带气旋 台风预报 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]