热带气旋客观实时业务定位的试验研究  

EXPERIMENTS OF AN OBJECTIVE OPERATIONAL LOCATION TECHNIQUE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE

作　　者：徐一鸣[1] 吴天泉[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海台风研究所

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1991年第3期264-270,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

摘　　要：本文介绍了一个热带气旋实时业务定位的客观方法,并将1988年的热带气旋作了独立的试验研究。方法是对接收到的卫星及雷达位置报告进行加工处理,利用西北太平洋气候及持续性路径预报技术(WPCLPR)产生一条可能的移动路径,使用一系列的加权多项式插值而得到一个客观确定的热带气旋新的警报位置。从试验的情况来看,该方法对预报员是一个有效的工具,可用于客观地确定热带气旋的现行位置。The experiments of an objective technique for estimating the location of a tropical cyclone from a variety of satellite and radar fix reports are described.The western North Pacific climato-logy and persistence (WPCLPR) track forecast technique is used to get a potential track fromeach fix.A tentative warning position is interpolated from a smooth curve that is fit to the futureand past positions.When multiple fixes are available,the expected accuracy and the timeliness ofeach fix could be obtained using the weighing polynomia.The technique was tested by the inde-pendent data of 1988.The results demonstrate that this technique is a useful tool for the forecast-ers to determine the present location of the tropical cyclone.

关 键 词：热带气旋 西北太平洋 实时业务 移动路径 试验研究 定位点 实时定位 预报模式 定位误差 预报效果 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]