TIME SERIES MODEL OF LONG-RANGE PREDICTION AND ITS APPLICATION  

作　　者：曹鸿兴 魏凤英 王永中 

机构地区：[1]Academy of Meteorological Science,State Metcorological Administration,Beijing [2]Beijing Meteorological Institute,Beijing

出　　处：《Acta meteorologica Sinica》1990年第1期120-127,共8页

摘　　要：By generalizing the concept of mean in mathematical statistics to a mean generation function(MGF), the extended matrix of MGF is defined and then a new model of time series is presented.A calculatingseheme for modelling of monovariate time series is deduced cooperating with a normalization procedure of vector and a couple score criterion.An example of climatic prediction for ten-year scale is given in this paper,the tendency of variation for every year can be predicted skillfully with the model.By generalizing the concept of mean in mathematical statistics to a mean generation function(MGF), the extended matrix of MGF is defined and then a new model of time series is presented.A calculatingseheme for modelling of monovariate time series is deduced cooperating with a normalization procedure of vector and a couple score criterion.An example of climatic prediction for ten-year scale is given in this paper,the tendency of variation for every year can be predicted skillfully with the model.

关 键 词：TIME SERIES MODEL OF LONG-RANGE PREDICTION AND ITS APPLICATION MGF 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]