黄毛鼠种群动态短期预测预报的研究  

Studies on the Short-term Predication of Rattus rattoides Population Dynamics

作　　者：常弘[1] 余国兴[1] 辛景禧 

机构地区：[1]中山大学生物学系

出　　处：《生态科学》1990年第1期48-56,共9页Ecological Science

摘　　要：本文首先讨论了珠江三角洲虎门地区近十年来的降雨量、平均温度、相对湿度的变化,经过双因素方差分析,认为以上三种生态因子虽然月份间有明显差异,但是年度间变化不明显。因此,一般来说,在珠江三角洲地区、鼠类种群数量不会产生大爆发的可能、但是季节上的数量变化还是明显的。本文结合三年的野外调查数据、建立预测方程。提出中、短期预测方案。在预测模型中体现种群内在特征和环境因子,共七类与鼠类生存有关的生态因子,这在国内对鼠类种群动态预测预报的研究中还是极少见,具有一定的实际和理论上的意义。The paper dealed with the variation of rainfall, relative humidity and average temperature from January, 1980 to January, 1989. Based on variance analysis, these ecological factors showed no significant differnce between year and year, but significant differnce between month and month. In general, rodent population number in Pearl River Delta did not suddenly take place to break out. But the population number fluctuation of season was obvious. Based on the field investagation from three years, we set up the population dynamics of predicating model. The model showed the characferistics of population and six ecological factors which the life of rodent was related to. The paper still put forward the short-term predicating programme of R. rattoides population dynamics.

关 键 词：黄毛鼠 种群动态 野外调查数据 短期预测 种群数量 生态因子 预测模型 啮齿动物 种群变化 预测预报 

分 类 号：Q14[生物学—生态学]