云南耿马甘蔗茎伸长量与气象因子的关系及其模拟预测  

Relationship between Sugarcane Stem Elongation and Meteorological Factors and Elongation Prediction in Gengma,Yunnan

作　　者：钟楚[1] 金莉莉 周臣 鲁正刚 李金惠 陈绍华 

机构地区：[1]云南省气候中心,昆明650034 [2]临沧市气象局,临沧677000 [3]耿马县气象局,耿马677500

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2011年第4期582-587,共6页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：云南省气象局"短平快"科研项目"影响云南省临沧市甘蔗的气象因子分析"

摘　　要：利用云南省耿马县2007-2010年新植甘蔗茎伸长量和同期气象资料,分析了气象因子对茎伸长的影响。结果表明,积温(Ta)、平均气温(T)、降水量(R)和日照时数(S)是影响甘蔗茎伸长的主要气象因子,前3者与甘蔗茎伸长量均呈显著(P<0.05)或极显著(P<0.01)正相关,说明较好的雨热光照条件对促进甘蔗茎伸长有利。利用2007-2009年甘蔗茎伸长期旬积温、平均气温、降水量、日照时数和对应的生长天数(D),通过Rich-ards函数对甘蔗茎伸长量进行拟合,建立了综合预测模型;用该模型对2010年逐旬茎伸长量进行预测,绝对误差为0.0～11.0cm(平均3.4cm),说明该模型具有一定的准确性与实用性。Using the data of sugarcane stem elongation and corresponding meteorological data in stem elongating stage of new-planting sugarcane in Gengma county,Yunnan province from 2007 to 2010,the effects of meteorological factors on elongation of sugarcane were analyzed.The results showed that accumulated temperature（Ta）,average temperature（T）,rainfall（R） and sunshine hours（S） were the main factors that affected elongation of sugarcane.The first three factors were positive correlated with elongation of sugarcane at α=0.05 or α=0.01 levels.It was indicated that better rain,heat and light conditions were in favor of promoting elongation of sugarcane.The elongation of sugarcane was fitted with ten-day Ta,T,R,S and corresponding growing days（D） from 2007 to 2009 by Richards function,and the comprehensive forecasting model was established.The absolute error of forecasting for ten-day elongation of sugarcane stem in 2010 was 0.0～11.0cm with the average of 3.4cm.The results suggested that the forecasting model has a certain practicality.

关 键 词：甘蔗 伸长量 RICHARDS函数 模拟 预测 

分 类 号：S566.1[农业科学—作物学]