灰色系统理论在我国铁矿石消费量和进口量预测中的应用  

The predication of grey system for China's consumption and import quantum of iron ore

作　　者：王文才[1] 侯涛[1] 杨驭东[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学矿业工程学院,内蒙古包头014010

出　　处：《内蒙古科技大学学报》2011年第3期193-195,共3页Journal of Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology

基　　金：内蒙古高等学校科学研究项目(NJ10093)

摘　　要：应用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)模型,建立了我国铁矿石消费量和进口量的预测模型.预测结果表明,在未来的三年内,我国铁矿石的消费量预计分别为12.007 4,13.677 2和15.579 3亿t,我国铁矿石的进口量预计分别为7.775 69,.222 9和10.939 7亿t,均呈增长趋势,但进口量的增长率高于消费量的增长率.如果这种状况持续下去,势必影响我国铁矿石产业的正常发展.这就要求我国目前必须采取措施,在尽量抑制铁矿石消费量的前提下,一要继续提高铁矿石的生产能力,二要重视铁资源的循环利用,并要不断开发铁资源的替代材料,以遏制不断增长的铁矿石进口量占铁矿石消费量的比例.In order to predict the consumption and import quantum,the model of GM（1,1） was established based on the prediction of grey system.The prediction result showed that the consumption of iron ore will be 1.200 74 billion tons,1.367 72 billion tons and 1.557 93 billion tons;the import quantum of iron ore will be 0.777 56 billion tons,0.9222 29 billion tons and 1.093 97 billion tons in 3 years.Both of them were increasing,but the increasing rate of the import quantum is higher than that of the consumption.It will affect the development of the iron ore industry if this staus goes on.So,on the premise of controlling the consumption of iron ore,our country must take measures to restrict the increasing rate of the import quantum.First,the throughput of iron ore should be improved.Second,the circulation of iron should be cared about more to curb the growing proportion of the import quantum accounted for the proportion of consumption.

关 键 词：灰色系统 铁矿石 消费量 进口量 预测 

分 类 号：F428.1[经济管理—产业经济]