基于证据推理的武器装备体系能力需求满足度评估方法  

A novel approach for WSoS capability requirement satisfactory degree evaluation using evidential reasoning

作　　者：程贲[1] 姜江[1] 谭跃进[1] 鲁延京[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2011年第11期2210-2216,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70901074;70971131;71031007;71001104;71101096);广东省自然科学基金(10451802904005327)

摘　　要：武器装备体系能力需求满足度评估中存在底层指标类型多样、评估信息不确定的问题.针对这一问题,提出了一种基于证据推理的满足度评估方法.该方法首先构造信度规则库,然后将多种类型的不确定性数据转换成统一的信度结构,最后通过证据推理方法获得能力需求满足度分布.文末,以陆上区域防空武器装备体系能力需求满足度评估为例说明该方法的运用和优点.Various types of low-level indexes and uncertainty of evaluation information exist in weapon system of systems （WSoS） capability requirement satisfactory evaluation. To solve this problem, a novel evaluation methodology using evidence reasoning is proposed. It firstly builds rule base with belief structure and transforms input information to a pre-defined form, then calculates the activation weight of input, after that using evidence reasoning for index aggregation to get the final assessment distribution. Area air-defense WSoS capability requirement satisfactory degree evaluation is investigated to illustrate the usage of the methodology and its advantages.

关 键 词：武器装备体系 能力需求满足度 证据推理 信度规则库 信度结构 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]