美国联邦政府赤字、经济增长与前景展望  

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit,Economic Growth and Prospect

作　　者：王应贵[1] 姚静[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2011年第12期45-53,共9页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：就在欧洲主权债务危机呈蔓延之势时,美国联邦政府的巨额赤字又成为新的关注点。从美国收支结构看,美国联邦政府刚性支出比例较大,而收入来源有限,因此削减债务难度很大。同时,计量分析也表明,经济衰退是财政赤字的根本原因。从国内生产总值组成部分的贡献度看,美国个人消费不振制约了经济持续增长,其原因可归结为家庭收入增长缓慢、家庭财富缩水、持续的产业结构调整以及人口老龄化。基于此,笔者认为,美国经济增长前景不容乐观,联邦政府的财政状况在未来两年内难以实现根本性好转。As the European sovereign debt crisis is spreading, the huge deficit of the U. S. federal govemment is catching the attention of global investors. Judged fi＇om the compositions of receipts and outlays, the sources of receipts are quite limited and the outlays are mainly entitlements, thereby making it hard for the government to reduce the deficit. Our analysis confirms that economic recessions are the major causes of huge budget deficits. The contributions made by various components to GDP show that weakness in personal consumption, mainly attributable to slow pace of personal income growth, shrinking family wealth, ongoing industrial outsourcing and population ageing, is checking the economic recovery. The thesis concludes that while the prospect for U. S. economic recovery is not optimistic, the federal government will not accomplish a fundamental tumaround in its deficit- reduction efforts.

关 键 词：美国政府 财政赤字 经济增长 前景分析 

分 类 号：F817.12[经济管理—财政学] F171.2