玛纳斯河流域绿洲县域经济发展类型及空间差异分析  

Regional Economic Disparities and Development Types on Country Scale in Manasi River Basin,Xinjiang

作　　者：禹朴家[1,2] 徐海量[1] 刘世薇[1,2] 安红燕[1,2] 龚君君[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2011年第6期1501-1508,共8页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2009CB421308);国家自然科学基金项目(41001066;30970549)资助

摘　　要：以县域为研究单元,在综合考虑各县域人均GDP和GDP总量变化的基础上,运用ESDA空间相关分析方法,分析了新疆玛纳斯河流域绿洲县域经济差异的时空变化趋势及不同的县域经济发展类型。结果表明,绿洲内各县域经济发展不均衡,并呈现出3种类型,即主导型县域、附属型县域和潜力型县域;绿洲经济呈现出显著的地带性差异,经济发展水平较高的几个县域都处在绿洲东部天山北坡经济带中,而经济发展水平较低的几个县域大多处于西北部沙漠边缘;从总体分布格局来看,8个研究年份中,Global Moran’s I估计值呈下降的趋势,并且在符号上发生了质的变化,表明区域内县域的自相关性在不断下降,其发展的有序性逐渐减弱,无序性逐渐增强;从局部分布格局来看,绿洲内各县域经济虽然有了一定的发展,但总体发展水平不均,县域之间的经济差异有了一定的扩大,主要表现为属于LL和HH类型的县域在逐步减少,属于LH和HL类型的县域在逐步增加。This article,taking country level as a study cell and combining country GDP and GDP per capita growth patterns,describes the spatial and temporal changes of the diverse economy in Manasi river basin of Xinjiang through the related analysis of ESDA.Result showed that the economy of counties was imbalance and had three patterns in oasis.The counties with high economic level were situated in the Northern Economy Zone of Tianshan Mountains;The counties with low economic level were situated in the edge of desert in the northwest.With the development of economy,the economic disparities of every country did not reduced.In the 8 selected years,the estimate values of Global Moran＇s I reduced,and the signs changed,so it showed that spatial correlation decreased,the disorder of development increased and the order of development reduced during these years.The calculation results of local Moran＇s I indicated that the county economy developed in the oasis,but the development was of spatially imbalance.The countries of LL-quadrant and HH-quadrant development types decreased,while the countries of LH-quadrant and HL-quadrant development types increased.

关 键 词：空间自相关 发展类型 区域经济 空间格局 玛纳斯河流域 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]