后危机时代心理预期对中国房地产价格的影响——以成都市为例  

The influence of psychological expectations at the post-crisis era on China's housing prices——Take the city of Chengdu as the example

作　　者：蒋海曦[1] 严可[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064 [2]中国科学技术大学信息工程学院,安徽合肥230027

出　　处：《经济学家》2011年第12期48-56,共9页Economist

摘　　要：全球金融危机使人们的心理预期发生较大的变化,从而直接影响房地产价格的变动。如果假定所有从事预期活动的行为主体都是"理性的人"并假定在某一特定经济时期,国家出台的政策和宏观调控措施稳定,则影响房价变化的心理预期是主要因素。通过对房价影响进行实证分析,发现综合心理预期的确是影响房地产价格的重要敏感因素,其影响效率在后金融危机时代表现更为强烈。The global financial crisis has changed people＇ psychological expectations greatly, which influences housing prices directly. Supposing that all the subjects who are engaged in expectation activities are＂rational persons＂, and that state policies and macro regulations are stable in a specific economic period, psychological expectations influencing the changes in housing prices are the main factor. Through empirical study, we draw conclusions that comprehensive psychological expectations are an important sensitive factor, and that their impacts are stronger at the post financial crisis era.

关 键 词：后危机时代 心理预期 房地产价格 效率 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]