中国货币政策效果城乡差异性研究——基于SVAR计量模型分析  

Urban and Rural Differences in the Practice of China's Monetary Policy——An Analysis based on SVAR Model

作　　者：姚德权[1] 黄学军[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2011年第6期20-25,共6页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-08-0186);高校博士点专项科研基金项目(200805320025)

摘　　要：运用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)对中国改革开放30年来货币政策效果的城乡差异进行实证。协整检验表明,广义货币供应、信贷规模、城镇收入、农村收入之间具有长期稳定关系。脉冲响应表明,相较农村收入而言,城镇收入对货币政策的响应更敏感,作用时间更长;方差分解表明货币供应对城镇收入变动的贡献率较大,信贷规模对农村收入变动的贡献率较大。因此,基于中国货币政策效果的城乡差异显著,完全统一的货币政策不利于城乡经济协调发展,实行差异化的城乡货币政策十分必要。The empirical analysis has been done by the SVAR model to test the urban and rural differences in the practice of China＇s monetary policy. Cointegration test shows that there is a long--term stable relationship among the broad money supply, credit scale, urban resident＇s income and rural resident＇s income. Impulse response shows that monetary policies have more sensi- tive and longer effects to urban income than to rural income. Variance decomposition shows that money supply has more contribution to the variable of urban income, while credit scale has more contribution to the variable of rural income. Therefore, it is necessary to employ different monetary polities to different area according to the urban and rural differences.

关 键 词：货币政策 城乡差异 SVAR 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]