中国外汇储备损益与人民币汇率制度改革  

The Gains and Losses of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves and the Reform of RMB Foreign Exchange Rate Regime

作　　者：管瑞龙[1] 杨志[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100086

出　　处：《上海金融》2011年第11期25-31,共7页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：中国人民大学2011年度研究生科学研究基金项目(11XNH058)

摘　　要：本文在系统总结中国外汇储备损益研究视角的基础上,提出央行"实际汇兑损益"的崭新视角,并以此为切入点,研究了中国外汇储备损益与人民币汇率调整的关系问题。本文借助国家资产负债表构建了双顺差分析模型,并通过升值情景模拟分析,得出结论:在汇率制度改革过程中,既有的汇率错位和通常伴随的汇率超调往往导致了央行发生"实际汇兑损益",损失量与兑换资金规模、汇率错位程度成比例,由此产生的汇兑损益可能导致对国家外汇储备的"非对称分配"。鉴于目前理论与实证研究不支持人民币被大幅低估的观点,货币当局应关注和避免因汇率错位及汇率超调产生的外汇储备汇兑损失;对于人民币的汇率调整应基于学理、结合实际,研究出一套准确客观的算法体系,以动态界定汇率合理区间;而从中长期考虑,需将汇率制度改革作为系统工程来推进。针对上述结论,本文提出四方面政策建议。The paper firstly summarizes viewpoints of researches on China＇s foreign exchange reserves gains and losses systemically,and suggests a new perspective based on the central bank＇s actual exchange gains and losses,which would be a starting point to study the relationship between China＇s foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate adjustment.Through the analysis of China＇s National Balance Sheet,and the simulated scenario of RMB appreciation,a conclusion could be drawn that during exchange rate system reform,exchange rate misalignment,along with usually accompanied exchange rate overshooting,often lead to the central bank＇s actual exchange losses,which is proportional to the scale of exchanging funds and the degree of exchange rate misalignment.Moreover,such exchange losses may lead to the asymmetric allocation of foreign exchange reserves.Currently,numerous theoretical and empirical researches does not support western dominant standpoint that RMB is significantly undervalued.Therefore,the central bank should avoid actual losses of foreign exchange reserves resulting from exchange rate misalignment and exchange rate overshooting.Henceforth the adjustment of RMB exchange rate should be based on an accurate and objective theoretical algorithm combined with practice,which can help to define the reasonable dynamic range of RMB exchange rate.In the long run,it is necessary to promote RMB exchange rate reform as a systemic project.Last,the paper offers policy proposals in four aspects.

关 键 词：外汇储备 汇率制度改革 国家资产负债表 汇率错位 汇率超调 汇兑损益 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]