Modeling of epidemic spreading with white Gaussian noise  

作　　者：GU Jiao GAO ZongMao Li Wei 

机构地区：[1]Max-Planck-Institutefor Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig 04103, Germany [2]College of Physical Science and Technology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China [3]Complexity Science Center, Institute of Particle Physics, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2011年第34期3683-3688,共6页

基　　金：supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10647125, 10635020, 10975057, 10975062);the Programme of Introducing Tal-ents of Discipline to Universities (B08033)

摘　　要：Motivated by the need to include the different characteristics of individuals and the damping effect in predictions of epidemic spreading, we build a model with variant coefficients and white Gaussian noise based on the traditional SIR model. The analytic and simulation results predicted by the model are presented and discussed. The simulations show that using the variant coefficients results in a higher percentage of susceptible individuals and a lower percentage of removed individuals. When the noise is included in the model, the percentage of infected individuals has a wider peak and more fluctuations than that predicted using the traditional SIR model.Motivated by the need to include the different characteristics of individuals and the damping effect in predictions of epidemic spreading, we build a model with variant coefficients and white Gaussian noise based on the traditional SIR model. The analytic and simulation results predicted by the model are presented and discussed. The simulations show that using the variant coefficients results in a higher percentage of susceptible individuals and a lower percentage of removed individuals. When the noise is included in the model, the percentage of infected individuals has a wider peak and more fluctuations than that predicted using the traditional SIR model.

关 键 词：流行病模型 高斯白噪声 噪声传播 SIR模型 模型预测 变异系数 仿真模型 仿真结果 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]