基于系统动力学的中国西南岩溶区的水资源承载力——以贵州省毕节地区为例  

Application of System Dynamics in Analyzing the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Karst Region of Southwest China——A Case Study in Bijie Region,Guizhou Province

作　　者：何仁伟[1,2,3] 刘邵权[1] 刘运伟[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [2]西昌学院农业科学院,四川西昌615013 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039

出　　处：《地理科学》2011年第11期1376-1382,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目"西南山区情势与资源环境安全战略研究(KZCX2-YW-333)"资助

摘　　要：对中国西南岩溶区水资源-生态环境-社会经济反馈关系进行分析,选取贵州省毕节地区做为研究对象,建立毕节地区水资源承载力系统动力学模型;通过动态模拟和综合调试,生成5种有效方案:传统发展型方案(方案1)、节水发展型方案(方案2)、开源与环保发展型方案(方案3)、GDP快速增长型方案(方案4)和协调发展型方案(方案5)。综合分析得出方案5是调控优化方案。对方案5对应的SD模型发展趋势做分析,为毕节地区及西南岩溶区水资源可持续利用提供决策依据。Based on analysis of the basic feedback structure of water resources-ecological environment-social economy system in Karst Region of Southwest China,taking Bijie region,Guizhou Province as the research area,this paper set up a System Dynamic（SD） model of Bijie region through dynamic simulation and synthetical adjustment.Five available schemes were chosen from various experimental schemes.They are traditional development scheme（Scheme 1）,water-saving development scheme（Scheme 2）,broaden sources of water resources and environmental protection scheme（Scheme 3）,fast economic development-oriented scheme（Scheme 4） and coordinated development-oriented scheme（Scheme 5）.Comprehensive evaluation indicates that Scheme 5 is the optimal one,which takes social economic development,ecological environment protection,water-saving and water resources development into account,and brings obvious social economic ecological and water-saving benefits.Therefore,this paper analyzed the corresponding SD model of Scheme 5 and the development trend of Bijie region in the next 12 years,and came to the conclusions that the application of Scheme 5 can effectively promote the coordinated development of water resources,ecological environment and social economy in Bijie region,and improve the carrying capacity of water resources in this area.

关 键 词：西南岩溶区 毕节地区 系统动力学 水资源承载力 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]