项目网络拓扑结构与关键路径相关性仿真分析  

Simulation Analysis for Correlation of Project Network Topology and Critical Paths

作　　者：杨婧[1] 陈英武[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院管理系,长沙410073

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2011年第12期2721-2726,共6页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70971131)

摘　　要：为分析项目网络拓扑结构对关键路径的影响,提出了新的网络参数—流度。基于RanGen,生成了1600个不同拓扑结构的项目网络,分析了网络节点的介数、入度、出度、流度等与项目关键路径的相关性。仿真结果表明,当项目完成时间信息不确定时,以度值、介数和流度值为基础计算得到的关键路径与项目实际关键路径拟合度能达到40%-80%以上。流度与项目关键路径存在最大的相关性,而且,通过非关键路径灵敏度分析的仿真结果也表明,流度较大的非关键路径节点对项目完成时间的影响最大。此外,还讨论了关键路径节点数量与网络拓扑结构的关系,发现关键路径节点数量与网络串行度、网络规模分别呈线性和幂指数关系。Flow degree,a new network measurement for analyzing the correlation between project network topology and critical paths was proposed.1600 different project networks were generated by RanGen and the correlation between nodes＇ betweenness centrality,indegree,outdegree,and flow degree were analyzed.Simulation results reveal that when the task durations are not known,the match ratio can achieve as high 40%-80% for critical path estimates based on indegree,outdegree and flow degree.Flow degree shows the highest correlation with critical paths,and it has the most important effect on the project completion time for nodes on the non-critical paths as well.Additionally,it is found that the serial degree and network size has linear and power law correlation with the number of nodes in critical paths,respectively.

关 键 词：项目网络 拓扑结构 串行度 关键路径 RanGen 流度 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]