雷暴大风、冰雹天气的预报方法研究  

Research on Forecast Method of Thunderstorm Wind and Hail

作　　者：郝莹[1,2] 鲁俊[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210039 [2]安徽省气象台,合肥230031 [3]安徽省气候中心,合肥230031

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2011年第26期299-304,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：2009年度公益性行业科研专项经费项目"中尺度对流性天气诊断分析方法研究"(GYHY200906003);2010年度公益性行业科研专项经费项目"强对流天气短时临近预报非常规检验新技术研发"(GYHY201006002);安徽省自然科学基金项目(090415209)

摘　　要：为了最大限度地减轻雷暴大风、冰雹天气造成的损失,提高这两种灾害性天气的预报预警能力,笔者在统计安徽省2000—2005年4—9月无雷暴、普通雷暴、强对流(雷暴大风、冰雹)样本的基础上,利用1×1格点NCEP资料计算了表征热力、动力、水汽条件的43个参数,对比分析了无雷暴、普通雷暴、强对流(雷暴大风、冰雹)时的物理量极值、归一化平均值等,并基于分析结果选取雷暴大风、冰雹的消空、预报指标,逐月逐时次的确定预报指标的阈值。最后,利用指标叠套法生成安徽省雷暴大风、冰雹天气潜势预报产品。用该方法对2007年的实时运行情况进行检验,2007年6—9月共有28个雷暴大风、冰雹过程全部报出,空报9个过程,无漏报,过程TS为30.4%。从检验效果来看,指标叠加的数值越大,出现雷暴大风或冰雹的概率也就越大,对农业防灾减灾起到一定积极的作用。In order to maximize to reduce the thunderstorm winds and hail weather damage,improve the two catastrophic weather forecasting warning ability.On the basis of statistics of no thunderstorms,ordinary thunderstorms and strong convective （thunderstorms,winds and hail） samples between April and September from 2000 to 2005 in Anhui Province,using 1×1 lattice point NCEP material,43 elements characterized for thermal,power,moisture conditions were calculated,and physical extremum,normalized average etc.when no thunderstorms,ordinary thunderstorms or strong convective （thunderstorms winds and hail） were contrast analysis.Then based on the analysis results,away empty and forecast indexes which related good with strong convective were selected to determine the threshold of forecast indexes month by month and hourly.Finally,using the index fold set method,weather potential prediction product Anhui thunderstorms winds and hail was created.The real-time operation of 2007,when there were 28 strong convective process from June to September,was inspected using this method.The result was that all quote,nine empty quote,no omission,and the process TS was 30.4%.Judging from the inspection effect,the bigger of the index superposition value,the bigger probability of thunderstorm winds or hail.So it will play a positive role for the agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：雷暴大风 冰雹 预报 叠套法 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]