基于ARE模型推导中国2010年投入产出表  

Derivation of China's 2010 Input-Output Table Based on Agent Response Equilibrium(ARE) Model

作　　者：胡兆光[1] 段炜[2] 肖潇[3] 田建伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京100052 [2]北京交通大学电气工程学院,北京100044 [3]华北电力大学经济管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《能源技术经济》2011年第11期8-14,共7页Electric Power Technologic Economics

摘　　要：编制投入产出表涉及大量的数据与计算,滞后问题严重。根据电力与经济呈正相关的原理,将已有的投入产出表及已知相关数据作为经济体的初始状态,以用电量及公布的宏观经济数据作为经济体运行的目标状态,采用ARE(智能体响应均衡)模型,模拟宏观经济的运行。并以用电量为约束的迭代算法让经济体达到目标状态,推出新的投入产出表。在ARE模拟中,各行业的模拟用电量与实际用电量之间的误差越小,得到的投入产出表精度越高。以此方法更新的投入产出表滞后期减少1～2年,可为其他经济模型研究及政策制定提供基础。In view of the considerable lag in publication of the Input-Output （I/O） Table due to multitudes of data and computation involved in its preparation, a new way to work out China＇s 2010 I/O Table is proposed. According to the principle of the positive correlation between electricity consumption and economy, taking the existing I/O table and related economic data available as the initial state of the economy, and the electricity consumption and the macroeconomic data newly published as the target state, the macro-economic operation is simulated by means of the Agent Response Equilibrium （ARE） model. The economy is made to reach the target state by an iterative algorithm in which the electricity consumption serves as constraint, and a new I/O table is derived in the process. In the ARE simulation, the smaller the errors between the simulated electricity consumption and the real electricity use of each sector, the more accurate the new I/O table will be. The I/O table obtained with this method shortens the lag by 1 to 2 years, which will provide the basis for study of other economical models and policy making.

关 键 词：投入产出表 智能体响应均衡模型 经济运行模拟 电力与经济 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济]