北京市能源需求预测与污染物排放量变化趋势分析  

Energy Demand Forecast and Pollution Emission Tendency in Beijing

作　　者：吴智泉[1,2] 张世平[1] 马美倩[1] 安连锁[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源与动力工程学院,北京102206 [2]中国水利电力物资有限公司,北京100045

出　　处：《能源技术经济》2011年第11期41-45,52,共6页Electric Power Technologic Economics

摘　　要：采用时间序列分析法和线性规划法,对北京市"十二五"期间的能源消费总量和主要终端能源消耗量进行了预测,并据此分析了污染物排放量情况。在此基础上,结合北京市社会经济发展的实际情况,从能源清洁化、能源安全、能源替代和循环利用等方面提出了北京市清洁能源建设的几点措施和建议。The total energy consumption and the main terminal energy consumption in Beijing during the period of 12^th Five-Year Plan （2011-2015） are predicted by means of the time series analysis method and linear programming, based on which the pollution emission is analyzed. Based on the actual situation of Beijing＇s social and economic development, measures and suggestions are proposed on clean energy construction in Beijing from the prospects of energy conservation, energy security, energy replacement and recycling use.

关 键 词：能源结构 能源供应 时间序列 线性规划 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] F403.2[经济管理—产业经济]