保险业发展对居民消费行为研究——基于VEC模型的实证分析  

The Empirical Analysis on Insurance Industry Development and Consumption Behaviors on the Basis of VEC Model

作　　者：高明[1] 郭姝辛[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学,四川成都611130

出　　处：《保险研究》2011年第11期12-19,共8页Insurance Studies

基　　金：西南财经大学"211工程"三期建设项目

摘　　要：促消费、扩内需是现阶段中国经济面临的主要任务,这意味着要减少居民的未来风险,提升其消费信心。保险业作为防范个体及家庭风险的有效手段,有助于保障消费计划的长期性和稳定性。利用1985年～2009年保险市场和居民消费层面的年度数据,利用向量误差修正模型实证分析了保险业发展对居民消费的现实作用,研究表明:保险业发展对居民消费的长期稳定性具有显著影响,但是在短期内主要以抑制经济波动为主,对居民消费的推动效果尚不明显。最后,依据研究结论并结合中国保险市场发展的实际情况,提出了几点政策建议。Promoting consumption and expanding domestic demands are the main tasks in China＇s economy which needs to reduce future risks of residents and improve consumer confidence. As an effective preventive risk management tool for individuals and families, the insurance market can help to ensure the stability of consumption plan on a long-term basis. This paper explored the effect the insurance industry played through the VEC Model, using the insurance market and consumption data during 1985 - 2009. It concluded that the insurance industry had a significant impact on the long-term stability of consumptions, but in the short time, it mainly helped to suppress fluctuations, while its promotion effect for consumption was not obvious. At last, it offered some policy recommendations based on research findings and the development of China＇s insurance market.

关 键 词：保险发展 保费收入 可支配收入 存款储蓄 

分 类 号：F840.6[经济管理—保险]