人力资本门槛与农业增长的多重均衡:理论与中国的经验证据  

Human Capital Threshold and Multiple Equilibria of Agricultural Growth: Theory and Evidence from China

作　　者：郭剑雄[1] 鲁永刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学农村发展研究中心

出　　处：《清华大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2011年第6期136-146,159,共11页Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(08BJL012);教育部人文社科重点基地重大项目(10JJD790034);陕西师范大学"211工程"三期重点学科建设项目

摘　　要：当人力资本水平低于某一临界值时,偏低的技术水平导致农业的稳态增长率偏低,农业增长陷入低水平均衡增长状态;一旦人力资本水平突破某一临界值,农业增长则进入高水平均衡增长路径。人力资本成为农业增长的源泉是存在前提条件的,当人力资本存量超过一定门槛值时,人力资本才可以在农业增长中凸显出其重要作用。这一理论分析的结论可以得到中国跨省经验数据的支持。When human capital is lower than a certain threshold level,a low technical change may lead to a low steady-state growth rate,agricultural growth is trapped in a low-growth equilibria.Only human capital exceeds the level,agriculture could enter a high-growth equilibria.There is a condition for human capital to become the engine of agricultural growth,only the stock of human capital exceeds the threshold level,human capital could paly an important role in agricultural growth.This theoretical analysis is supported by empirical study basing on the data from provinces in China.

关 键 词：人力资本 门槛效应 农业增长 多重均衡 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济] F323.6F224