负二项和修正Poisson回归在伤害频次影响因素研究中的应用  

Application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression in the research of risk factors for injury frequency

作　　者：曹庆庆[1] 吴振强[1] 孙莹[1] 王铁柱[1] 韩腾伟[1] 顾超美[1] 孙业桓[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学公共卫生学院,合肥230032

出　　处：《卫生研究》2011年第6期702-704,708,共4页Journal of Hygiene Research

基　　金：安徽省教育厅自然科学基金重点资助项目(No.KJ2009A79);安徽省自然科学基金重点资助项目(No.090413131)

摘　　要：目的探讨Poisson和负二项回归模型在伤害频次影响因素研究中的应用及引发伤害频次增加的危险因素。方法对合肥市某县整群随机抽取的中小学校的2917名在册学生进行问卷调查,得到的数据拟合修正Poisson回归和负二项回归模型,并比较其拟合效果,筛选出儿童青少年增加意外伤害发生次数的危险因素,探讨两种方法分析的合理性。结果用Lagrange乘子检验发现该资料Poisson模型中存在过离散(P<0.0001),籍此分别用修正Poisson回归和负二项回归对过离散伤害频次数据进行分析,结果显示修正Poisson回归模型拟合较好。回归分析均显示男性,年龄小,父亲外出打工,监护人文化程度初中以上和吸烟为导致伤害频次增加的危险因素。结论对于具有聚集性趋向的伤害频次数据,应该采用修正Poisson回归分析和负二项回归分析模型分析其影响因素,结果修正Poisson回归拟合效果更好,或能更准确的解释有关因素对伤害频次影响的情况。Objective To Eexplore the application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression analysis in analyzing the influential factors for injury frequency and the risk factors leading to the increase of injury frequency.Methods 2917 primary and secondary school students were selected from Hefei by cluster random sampling method and surveyed by questionnaire.The data on the count event-based injuries used to fitted modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model.The risk factors incurring the increase of unintentional injury frequency for juvenile students was explored,so as to probe the efficiency of these two models in studying the influential factors for injury frequency.Results The Poisson model existed over-dispersion（P0.0001） based on testing by the Lagrangemultiplier.Therefore,the over-dispersiondispersed data using a modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model,was fitted better.respectively.Both showed that male gender,younger age,father working outside of the hometown,the level of the guardian being above junior high school and smoking might be the results of higher injury frequencies.Conclusion On a tendency of clustered frequency data on injury event,both themodified Poisson regression analysis and negative binomial regression analysis can be used.However,based on our data,the modified Poisson regression fitted better and this model could give a more accurate interpretation of relevant factors affecting the frequency of injury.

关 键 词：伤害 儿童青少年 修正Poisson回归分析 负二项回归分析 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学] R179[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]